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Die Bodenkultur - Journal for Land Management, Food and Environment
A. Benčoková, J. Hruška, P. Krám and E. Stuchlík:
Future and recent changes in flow patterns in the Czech headwater catchments
This paper focuses on changes in flow patterns due to projected climate change at micro-scales such as headwater catchments. Three catchments were investigated – Lysina, Červík and Litavka – which are situated in the western, central and eastern part of the Czech Republic. To estimate hydrological patterns for the period 2071–2100, the regional climate model (RCAO) was used to downscale climatic data. RCAO ran with boundary conditions from two general circulation models, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 and SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2. Bias-corrected downscaled daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is projected to decline by 2–30%, and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are projected to be significant, with summer- autumn decreases of ~60%, and winter increases of up to ~250% compared to mean flow from 1967–1990. These changes would have serious ecological consequences, since streams could regularly dry-up for short periods. Key words: Headwater catchments, hydrological modelling, regional climate model.