871364 Scenario development and analysis

Lecture and exercise
Semester hours
Lecturer (assistant)
Thaler, Thomas
Offered in
Sommersemester 2022
Languages of instruction


This course introduces the students to the concept of futures studies in natural hazard management (theoretical background as well as the various methods). In particular, the course gives an introduction to explain the differences between various scenario techniques and approaches, point out the advantages and disadvantages (uncertainty and risk) of each method as well as to select a suitable scenario method for a specific problem.

Previous knowledge expected


Objective (expected results of study and acquired competences)

This course contains three main learning outcomes: (1) an overview of scenario planning theory and concepts, (2) an exploration of the applications of the method (quantitative/qualitative) in various sub-fields of natural hazard management, and (3) an examination of some of the modelling tools used for scenario planning.
You can find more details like the schedule or information about exams on the course-page in BOKUonline.