Research

Objectives The project develops transformation pathways for Austria that are growth-independent, climate-neutral and socially just, providing actionable insights for policy and modelling. Growth-independence means that a high level of societal well-being is achievable within planetary boundaries independently of economic growth. The project is guided by three research questions: 1) What are the characteristics of growth-independent transformation pathways? 2) Which baseline scenarios and measures are necessary to develop and assess growth-independent transformation pathways for Austria? 3) How can growth-independent transformation pathways achieve climate neutrality while enhancing societal well-being in Austria in an equitable way? Methodology The methods used include literature reviews (especially on growth-independent and Austrian climate mitigation pathways), knowledge integration methods and macroeconomic model simulations. Knowledge integration supports the development and evaluation of scenarios to promote acceptance and feasibility (e.g. what is just?). Baseline scenarios and transformation pathways are developed qualitatively and quantitatively, based on an adaptation of the Shared-Socio Economic Pathway (SSP) framework to the project context. Three models simulate these pathways, representing different economic “schools of thought”: the neoclassical WEGDYN-AT, the hybrid MIO-ES (New Keynesian-neoclassical) and the system-dynamic iSD-AT. Finally, a feasibility assessment will be carried out to identify leverage points for equitable, growth-independent climate mitigation pathways. Innovation At the end of the project, the first model-based analysis of growth-independent climate protection paths for Austria should be available. The applied interdisciplinary methodology and evaluation of growth-independent and socially just transformation paths should serve as good practice for similar analyses.

In order to achieve the goal of climate neutrality by 2040, it is essential to decarbonize the Austrian building sector, which accounts for around 10% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Almost 1.4 million fossil-fuel heating systems are still in use. Around 60% of residential buildings are also considered to need energy-efficient refurbishment. At the same time, more and more people are struggling to keep their homes adequately warm (or cool in summer), with up to 10% of all households doing so according to recent surveys. Low-income and vulnerable groups live disproportionately often in poorly insulated homes and are therefore exposed to health hazards from living spaces that are too cold or too hot. At the intersection of these two challenges, the project is guided by two research questions: 1) How should different approaches and measures for decarbonizing the building sector be evaluated in terms of their socio-economic compatibility? 2) Which approaches and measures are capable of fostering a "just transition" - i.e. a decarbonization of the building sector in line with the SDGs? Guided by these research questions, the overarching aim of this project is to identify pathways for a "just transition" in the building sector, with a particular focus on the rental housing sector. This project follows an interdisciplinary approach, theoretically guided by the current scientific literature on "energy justice" and "just transition". The project uses qualitative and quantitative system dynamics methods. It will develop a building module for the established system dynamic iSDG_AT model and calibrate it with historical data for Austria. In addition, integrated socio-economic scenarios for achieving climate neutrality in the building sector will be developed and evaluated using the iSDG_AT model. In this way, the project will help to identify possible synergies and trade-offs between various policy measures and scenarios and the SDGs, as well as new approaches to evaluation.

To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the urgency of climate action is increasing. At the same time, as the impacts become apparent, the need to adapt to climate change is also increasing. This is essential in order to reduce vulnerability to the effects of climate change (IPCC, 2022). In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), climate change is not only a specific goal (SDG 13), but also interacts with a large number of other goals. Specifically, the effects of climate change can threaten the achievement of the SDGs. To prevent this, adequate adaptation measures are required that are based on an understanding of the interactions and negative and positive synergies between climate change adaptation and the SDGs (Fuldauer et al., 2022). In this context, this project addresses the question of how climate change adaptation interacts with climate mitigation measures to influence the achievement of the SDGs in Austria. The aim is to identify interactions between climate change adaptation, mitigation and the SDGs. On the one hand, it will be shown how dynamics which are already considered in the system dynamics based iSDG model affect long-term scenarios and, on the other hand, further dynamics which need to be taken into account will be identified. To take into account the interaction effects and long-term dynamics, the quantitative modeling approach is applied to analyze how different adaptation scenarios affect the achievement of the SDGs and which dynamics are in play. As the model has a largely simplified structure for taking adaptation into account, the project aims to identify and discuss potentials for extensions. Therefore, the model results will be set in the context of the current state of research and discussed with experts.